徐佳敏, 李鹏飞, 马俊杰, 程捷, 刘晓鸿, 王滋贯. 大熊猫国家公园成都片区滑坡易发性评价[J]. 国家公园(中英文), 2024, 2(4): 246-259. DOI: 10.20152/j.np.202401040006
引用本文: 徐佳敏, 李鹏飞, 马俊杰, 程捷, 刘晓鸿, 王滋贯. 大熊猫国家公园成都片区滑坡易发性评价[J]. 国家公园(中英文), 2024, 2(4): 246-259. DOI: 10.20152/j.np.202401040006
XU Jiamin, LI Pengfei, MA Junjie, CHENG Jie, LIU Xiaohong, WANG Ziguan. Landslide susceptibility evaluation of Chengdu Giant Panda National Park[J]. NATIONAL PARK, 2024, 2(4): 246-259. DOI: 10.20152/j.np.202401040006
Citation: XU Jiamin, LI Pengfei, MA Junjie, CHENG Jie, LIU Xiaohong, WANG Ziguan. Landslide susceptibility evaluation of Chengdu Giant Panda National Park[J]. NATIONAL PARK, 2024, 2(4): 246-259. DOI: 10.20152/j.np.202401040006

大熊猫国家公园成都片区滑坡易发性评价

Landslide susceptibility evaluation of Chengdu Giant Panda National Park

  • 摘要: 滑坡是全球最具破环性的地质灾害之一, 地质灾害风险研究对保障国家公园社会-生态系统稳定性非常重要, 易发性评价有利于国家公园科学开展滑坡灾害防治和地质灾害风险管理工作。以大熊猫国家公园成都片区为研究区, 选取地形因子、水文因子、土壤植被因子等20个致灾因子, 基于VIKOR法、频率比法(FR)和随机森林、CatBoost、LightGBM三个分类算法建立了混合模型。利用频率比研究因子与滑坡发生的空间相关性, 用三种算法计算因子重要性, 在此基础上利用混合模型绘制区域滑坡易发性图, 并采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)和曲线下的AUC值以及Kappa系数评估模型的准确率和精确度。结果表明, VIKOR-FR-LightGBM为最优预测模型, 海拔、距河流远近和距断层远近是影响滑坡发生的显著因子, 区域极高敏感区面积为2473.30km2。因此, VIKOR-FR-LightGBM是预测研究区滑坡易发性最有效的模型, 研究结果可为大熊猫国家公园成都片区防治滑坡灾害和生态安全管理提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Landslides, as one of the most destructive geological hazards worldwide, necessitate risk assessment for ensuring the stability of socio-ecological systems in national parks. Susceptibility assessments are beneficial for the scientific management of landslide disasters and geological disaster risk within national parks. With the Chengdu Panda National Park as the study area, this study selects 20 disaster-causing factors, such as topography, hydrology, and soil vegetation. A hybrid model is established based on the VIKOR method, frequency ratio (FR) method, and a combination of three classification algorithms-Random Forest (RF), CatBoost (CB), and LightGBM (LG). The frequency ratio is utilized to examine spatial correlation between factors and landslide occurrence, while the three algorithms are used to calculate factor importance. Based on these findings, the hybrid model is employed to draft the susceptibility map for landslides in the region. The accuracy and precision of the models are evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, Area Under the Curve (AUC), and Kappa coefficient. The results indicate that the VIKOR-FR-LG model demonstrates superior performance in predicting landslide susceptibility. Elevation, proximity to rivers, and distance from fault lines are significant factors influencing landslide occurrence. The area with extremely high sensitivity amounts to 2473.30km2. Therefore, it can be inferred that the VIKOR-FR-LG model is an effective tool for predicting landslide susceptibility in the research area. The results of this study can serve as a reference for landslide prevention and ecological safety management in the Chengdu Panda National Park.

     

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